Feb. 15
In a turn of events, agreements over the Astana talks were postponed until the 17th. More talks will follow in Geneva next week. Representatives from the Syrian opposition delegation were previously not set on attending the second round of peace talks. However, their insistence on sending in “technical experts” to Astana after threatening to boycott the process delayed plans for the talks to have started on Monday, then Wednesday, and then Friday. It has also been reported that ISIS/Daesh has claimed the killing of a member of the opposition delegation.
Twitter post made by independent pro-Syrian regime journalist Hassan Ridha. Shown here are a photo of the FSA leader and opposition delegation member who was killed by Daesh, along with a statement put out by Daesh media outlet Amaq. A direct translation will be added.
The talks will focus on a cessation of hostilities between government and opposition forces. Russia and Iran, while having very different interests in the conflict, both support the Syrian government forces (SAA). Turkey and Jordan, along with Coalition-aligned UN representatives will support the opposition (FSA/SDF). Russia also gives tepid support to the opposition, possibly in an attempt to create grounds for a successful ceasefire. The ceasefire does not encompass the local and international fight against Daesh.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has announced dedication to supporting progress on a ceasefire in Syria. The UN’s News Centre has released multiple articles describing the urgency of the humanitarian crisis in Syria, which is exacerbated by ceasefire violations. Both sides blame each other for violations. Peace talks are being delayed due the opposition delegations’ decision to send over representatives supposedly in light of Russia’s inability to hold Syria accountable for their end of the ceasefire.
Feb. 18
So far the talks have rendered minimal progress in terms of building trust and developing political discourse between the regime and opposition members. Talks in Geneva Next week could possibly start building on such discourse, but for now political objectives will be masked with military compromises.
Bashar Jaafari, the Permanent Representative of the Syrian Arab Republic to the United Nations during the talks in Astana, Kazakhstan.
Now that both the Turkish and opposition delegations are attending, discussions pertaining to ceasefire agreements can take place. The Turkish/opposition delegation are now being heavily criticized by Syria for stalling the progress. Reuters reports the talks Syria’s permanent UN reppresentative Bashar Ja’afari claimed that the delegation seeks to disrupt the Astana meetings.
Turkey had ‘downgraded’ its delegation in exchange for opposition delegates. Because of this, Ja’afari questions Turkey’s goals and willingness to comply with effects of the talks that may limit their ability to continue Operation Euphrates Shield within Syrian borders. In addition Reuters said: Ja’afari said Turkey must take decisive steps to stop foreign jihadists entering Syria and end its violation of Syrian sovereignty by pulling its troops out if the ceasefire was to take hold on the ground.
Opposition delegation members attending the Astana talks.
Al Jazeera reports the attendance of FSA group Jaysh al-Islam’s political leader Muhammad Alloush, one of those replacing Turkish delegates in the talks. This happened only after promises from Moscow that the ceasefire would be enforced on both sides. In an effort to do so, Russian foreign minister Lavrov met with Syrian UN envoy Steffan De Mistura who has expressed dedication to the talks. However, opposition representatives also stand against Iranian involvement in groups who will monitor the cessation of hostilities.
Due to a severe lack of progress, there will likely be more talks after next week’s meeting in Geneva. As the Syrian regime’s goal stands to render the opposition illegitimate, the opposition has stated its desire for political negotiations in Geneva. Meanwhile, the US goals for peace in Syria continue to go forward with an ‘America First’ approach. As CNN reported on Wednesday, the Pentagon has suggested putting ground troops in Syria. Unless American operations in Syria attempted to work within the guidelines set by future peace agreements this strategy would only serve to complicate the conflict.
