Supporters of President Erdogan and the AKP are celebrating the announcement of the Yes campaign win in the vote on whether Turkey should adopt the proposed referendum which will strengthen Erdogan’s executive reach. The win, a 51% majority in favor of the Yes option, based on a 98% total vote count, was called by state media outlets A Haber, Anadolu Agency and TRT. The results were endorsed by Erdogan, who then called Prime Minister Yildirim and opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader to congratulate them on the results Kom News reports, a rather audacious move when the outcome was contested by members of the three opposition parties. The Prime Minister later gave a speech that touched on hardened policies towards terror organizations. Those attending chanted “Recep Tayyip Erdogan!” Erdogan has kept a rather modest demeanor, recognizing the unofficial status of the results, but still asserts that the adoption of the referendum is based off a majority, with a difference of just 1.3%. The graphics shown below are from A Haber’s results.
Poles in Turkey closed at 5pm on Sunday, April 16. A majority of 58.2 million eligible voters went out to the poles to submit their approval or disapproval of the ruling AKP party’s constitutional referendum. By 6pm, CNN Turk and A Haber were reporting a 60% Yes vote derived from 22% of the votes. From there the No vote slowly crept up through the 40% range and settled at 48%. However, Kom News reports opposition party leaders of the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) and the Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP) have contested the results by claiming the existence of 2.5 million problematic votes, a claim that would soon be dismissed. Either way, the HDP, CHP, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) all have stated that the current results reflect a discrepancy of, between multiple reports, at least 40-60% of the counted vote. Social media accounts claimed that the final results were based on only 60% of the total vote instead of 98%, a number that pro-state news outlets have not backed down on.
A Haber pro-state results that has led to the Yes campaign win.
From A Haber
According to an OSCE interim report from a Limited Referendum Observation Mission, within Turkish law adopting the referendum would render the following:
The office of the prime minister will be abolished and some of the parliament’s oversight functions will be transferred to an executive presidency. The amendments will increase the number of seats in parliament [from 550] to 600 and empower the president to fill some key positions in the judiciary by direct appointment…. The proposed 18 amendments affecting 72 articles of the constitution will be voted on as a single package.
The Yes campaign lost in Turkey’s three largest cities: Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir despite their histories as being dominated by the AKP. The Yes and No camps, unable to suggest more than their respective campaign’s names, were therefore utterly at odds with each other. However, there was some crossover between pro-AKP and pro-HDP (Peoples’ Democratic Party) voters. Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voters opted for the Yes camp as well as No.
Even smaller, historically pro-AKP cities like Artvin had a No majority.
The measure to adopt the referendum comes during a proclaimed state of emergency put in place after the failed military coup in July 2016, which resulted in mass arrests throughout the public and private sectors, including judges, members of parliament, military personnel, educators, and journalists. Surprisingly, Erdogan’s popularity grew despite opposition unrest. Those who condemned the coup 9 months ago likely voted for the referendum which could keep Erdogan in power until 2029.
Prime Minister Yildirim casting his vote.
Throughout the day, members of parliament and the administration were surrounded by press when submitting their ballots. Several broadcast news stations, such as Al Jazeera and Rudaw, aired footage of Erdogan entering and exiting his booth. Prime Minister Yildirim, whose position is now terminated in the wake of the referendum’s apparent success, was quoted as saying, “Whatever the result is, we will hold it in high esteem. The decision of our nation is the most beautiful decision.”
Nusret Gokce, aka “Salt Bae” the Turkish meme star and celebrity chef, casts his vote for the proposed constitutional referendum.
Turkish news outlet Hurriyet Daily News posted photos in their live feed of the President Erdogan, Chief of General Staff Gen. Hulusi Akar, EU Minister Omer Celik, and party leaders casting their ballots. Also in the press was Imprisoned HMP leader Selahattin Demirta’s wife Basak Demirtas [casting] her vote in Diyarbakir. Even Nusret Gokse, celebrity chef and the face of the ‘Salty Bae’ meme, showed up.
The polarized environment surrounding the polls led to controversies including a few (1 2) accounts of voter fraud by the Yes camp surfacing on social media accounts. The blatant, almost theatrical abuse of the ballots documented and then released onto social media raises questions about the accuracy of accusations of fraud. In addition to rumors of fraud, violence was anticipated and eventually occurred. HDN reports, “Turkish authorities have conducted a search for biological and chemical weapons in a school in which members of the top brass and the country’s speaker were scheduled to vote in the Cankaya district of Ankara.” Journalist Ali Bayramoglu was attacked after voting. In Diyarbakir, a district with a majority No vote, 2 killed and 1 injured in an exchange of gunfire between two groups near a polling station.
Posted by @metesohtaoglu on Twitter
Protests have broken out in Istanbul against the Yes campaign win. Erdogan supporters have also taken to the streets in response.
The world can expect some major changes in Turkish foreign and domestic policy following the results of the referendum. Crackdowns on dissent, a more blatant position towards US Kurdish allies in Syria, further political unrest, and a resurgence of Islamist/nationalist fervor are also to be expected. To read up on the political climate surrounding the referendum, as well as its implications for the future, read TFG’s article on What Everyone Needs to Know About Turkey.
Also to gain a better understanding of the history between Turkey and the Kurds, as well as the background of Turkish operations in Northern Syria, click here.
