A non-binding referendum is being held in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq on September 25. The referendum will decide if the semi-autonomous region will start a process leading to eventual Kurdish independence in what is now northern Iraq. Many are anticipating the outcome around the world, particularly Western supporters of the Kurdish project in Iraq as well as in the autonomous Kurdish territory of Rojava in northern Syria.
The Kurds are the second-largest ethnic group in the Middle East, coming in behind 
Arabs. Despite this numerical advantage, there is no independent Kurdish state. The Kurds for the most part are divided by the borders of Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran, and remain the largest group of stateless peoples in the world. The Kurdish population is estimated to be anywhere between 25-40 million people. On Monday Sept. 25, a referendum will be held in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish Region, in an attempt to claim the independence they sought a century ago at the end of WWI when the Ottoman Empire was being divided among France, Britain, and the emerging nation-state of Turkey.
Most major powers and regional actors have given their opinion on the referendum, garnering overwhelming disapproval for its untimeliness as a distraction from efforts against Daesh/ISIS. A unilaterally independent Kurdistan could also start additional conflicts and further complicate issues already prevalent in the area. Of those who have expressed their disapproval of the referendum are: PM Abadi of the Iraqi central government, the Arab League, Iran, Turkey, the US, the UK, the EU (France in particular).
On Sunday, Iraq’s oil minister demanded control of the Kirkuk oil fields, asking for immediate action by Baghdad, with force if needed. Kirkuk is a disputed, oil-rich region between the KRG and Baghdad. Refer to the map below for an illustration of the Kurdish region autonomous provinces vs the disputed territories. For the KRG, the oil coming out of Kirkuk would provide near economic stability. Erbil currently depends on a stipend from Baghdad, 17% of Iraq’s national budget, an agreement made in 2015.
Map of autonomous vs disputed territories.
Iraqi parliament has gone so far as to vote to remove the Kurdish governor of Kirkuk, possibly to be replaced by one loyal to the central government. Baghdad is willing to undermine the KRG’s attempt at a case for independence by economically stifling them. And while Turkey and Iran do buy a considerable amount of oil from the Kurds, a ‘Yes’ win on the referendum could influence them to look elsewhere.
The three countries bordering northern Iraq: Syria, Turkey, and Iran have all (with the exception of Syria) voiced their disapproval of the referendum, and while their relationships are complex, all house Kurdish minorities, and all have an apprehension about Kurdish nationalism rising up within their own borders. Kurdish support throughout the region is palpable. The PKK in Turkey announced 
earlier this week that “An attack on Southern Kurdistan [KRG] will be considered an attack on all of Kurdistan.” They have since sent 500+ fighters to defend the region from foreign and domestic belligerence. Turkey has since extended military drills taking place near its Syria-Irag border. Iranian Kurds have been showing support for the referendum, flying Kurdish flags and assembling a security team that vows to defend Kirkuk in case the Iraqi oil minister’s threats become real. Tehran has since mobilized security units to Kurdish regions, presumably to quell overt support for the referendum.
Despite all this, President Barzani of the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) has since stated that the referendum will be held on time regardless of international opinion. In response to a lack of international support, Barzani told The Guardian: “From WWI until now, we are not part of Iraq. It’s a theocratic, sectarian state. We have our own geography, land and culture. We have our own language. We refuse to be subordinates.”
Neighbors bordering Iraqi Kurdistan: Syria, Turkey, and Iran will all be affected by a majority “Yes” vote in one way or another. The only internationally recognized support the referendum has received was from PM Netanyahu of Israel. Support from Israel also has its pros and cons, affected heavily by neighboring countries’ relationships with the regionally unpopular, US-backed state.
Israel’s support likely stems from a common belief that an independent Kurdistan would create a buffer-zone between Iran and the Middle East. As it stands, Iraq is a currently conduit for Iranian influence. A majority of Iraq’s PMF (Popular Mobilization Forces) paramilitary forces belong to the Shia sect of Islam and are loyal to Ayatollah Khomeini, the Shia theocratic leader of Iran, and those in the Iraqi central government who depend on Tehran for military strength and thus legitimacy for the PMF as a quasi political party in Baghdad. As a report from the Carnegie Middle East Center states, “Their military resources–including heavy armor, drones, and military advisors–all come from Tehran. Their cash and political legitimacy come from Baghdad.” The conduit Iraq creates for Iranian influence fuels Tehran’s projects in the west, in Lebanon where Hezbollah is established, and as bolsters for Assad’s brutal regime in Syria.
FOR FURTHER READING:
CRS Insight: Kurds in Iraq Propose Controversial Referendum on Independence
Rand Corp: Regional Implications of an Independent Kurdistan
US DoS: Press Conference by Special Presidential Envoy McGurk in Erbil, Iraq.
