This is current as of 1:00AM UTC on Jan. 22, 2018. More to come.
Saturday January 20th saw the revamped Turkish offensive in NW Syria, targeting the Kurdish-held Afrin canton, starting with 72 aircraft spilling out ordinance. The new offensive goes by the name Operation Olive Branch (OOB), supposedly a slight at the Kurds’ prevalent olive farming industry. The operation’s explicit objective has been to rid Syria’s border with Turkey of the SDF (Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces) “terror army,” a term used by Turkish President Erdogan calls them.
Although Turkish state media has suggested a more roundabout motive stating, “Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu says [the] objective of Operation Olive Branch is to ensure safety of Turkey’s borders and civilians in the area.” Turkey’s bombardment of the canton in the last two days has led to a number of civilian deaths, reportedly 18, six being women and children.
State media Anadolu Agency claims Turkish jets have destroyed 45 “terror” targets in the north, highlighted in blue in the map below. Land-based rockets have also aided Turkey in territorial gain; although @Dalatrm on Twitter reports that an OES commander stated: “We’re running into a bit of difficulty. Progress made on outer [Afrin] edges, but not as swift as planned or expected.” Videos of rocket bombardment can be seen here. See the map below to gain a better understanding of who is who and who is where. (Green ‘Rebels’ area a mixture of FSA and former al-Qaeda affiliate HTS).
Map made by @StrategicNews1
In a statement on Twitter, FM Cavusoglu said:
As always, the
#PYD/#YPG terrorists continue to deceive the world with nonsense propaganda and baseless lies by showing neutralized terrorists as civilians. They use civilians as human shields. Our target is neither our Kurdish brothers nor Syrians. We are only after terrorists.
A series of photos solidifying the horror of current events in Afrin show actual pieces of children being sorted by a bewildered medic. Many other disturbing images of civilian injuries and deaths leave Cavusoglu’s words questionable at the very least, reflecting the same stance of the Syrian Government and Russia in their own campaigns against areas heavily populated by civilians. Turkish state rhetoric has repeatedly described Kurdish peoples and organizations as terrorist groups, whether they reside in Turkey, Syria, or Iraq.
While the bombings continue, another Turkish state media outlet, The Daily Sabah, has published an article claiming that the Turkish Red Crescent said the YPG and the Assad regime had blockaded roads leading out of Afrin in the southern part of Afrin canton, the main entryway into Syria for Turkey’s ground operations.
South of Afrin lies Idlib, a canton that also plagued by intense conflict between Assad’s forces, former al-Qaeda affiliate HTS, and other FSA groups, some backed
64 year old Kurdish woman armed to defend her people.
by Turkey. Many of those seeking to flee Afrin had already fled from Idlib. The only option would be to stay put or seek refuge with Turkish-backed FSA groups in OES’s enclave between Afrin and Rojava proper (shown as the blue territory above). Taking this into consideration, the blockades are most likely to keep Turkish forces out, not keeping civilians in.
Before OOB went into effect, there was no question as to who the operation was targeting, but disinformation made even the Associated Press question their own coverage of the conflict. TRT reported Daesh (ISIS/Islamic State) positions were hit by Turkish artillery on Saturday. What AP didn’t realize is that there are no Daesh enclaves in NE Syria and that Daesh prisoners who were taken in and recruited by SDF fighters did so in central eastern Syria, near the city of Raqqa, not in Afrin. AP later withdrew the disinformation and apologized.
The US, after announcing the creation of a 30,000-member border security force, has since removed itself from involvement in Afrin, attempting to avoiding conflict between two NATO members. However, on Sunday Turkish state media Anadolu Agency announced the opening of a new front on the eastern side of Turkey’s enclave in northern Syria: Rojava proper. More specifically the city of Mabij. Some reports suggest US Special Operations Forces have been posted in the city to stave off a larger conflict in the greater Rojava, but Turkish voices have yet to respond to this operational roadblock.
In line with defending Turkey’s proclaimed mission of ensuring the safety of civilians in Afrin, their Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeted out the following:
#OperationOliveBranch is carried out on the basis of international law, in accordance w/our right to self-defense as outlined in Article 51 of the UN Charter&relevant UNSC resolutions. 1373(2001), 1624(2005), 2170(2014) & 2178(2014) & in full respect of Syria’s territorial integrity.
France has spoken out against Turkey’s offensive in Syria, and has called for an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting for Monday the 22. The Foreign Ministry of Egypt has also condemned the operation.
Operation Euphrates Shield (OES), Turkey’s first major campaign in northern Syria saw another incarnation a few months back in Idlib, supposedly to drive out HTS, but ended up being another assault on Kurdish-held territory. This incarnation of OES is certainly a Biblical reference in an attempt to paint this campaign as one of mercy and integrity while simultaneously referencing the Kurds’ agricultural heritage.
8/9/18
8 months on and Turkish forces have completely taken Afrin canton and are attempting to broker a political solution to the potential catastrophic situation in Idlib as Syrian government forces along with their Russian and Iranian allies plan an all-out offensive against the mainly civilian population. Protests have broken out across the opposition-held area, hoping to inspire a ceasefire and a political solution. Flags of the Syrian revolution and the Turkish state flew as anti-Assad slogans were chanted and sung in crowds of hundreds of protesters.
