background and domestic issues
Armenia sits at a historical crossroads. While the protests which continue as of this writing started as recently as April 2018, the issues themselves run deeper and further back. The main focus of the protests that broke out this year was the continued rule of Serzh Sargsyan. First entering the public eye officially in 1996 and more or less holding power since then, he became the Prime Minister of Armenia in 2007 and the President the following year. He has stayed in power ever since.
In 2008, mass protests broke out in Yerevan against fraudulent election claims surrounding the campaign of Sargsyan. Sargsyan ordered security officials to crack down, resulting in ten protesters being killed by internal security forces. Against this backdrop, then, we can begin to understand some of the frustration at the hands of the population (especially among the youth, who came out in droves to protest in 2008) against Sargsyan’s continued rule. Again in 2013, when Sargsyan was re-elected, protests broke out across Armenia and the wider world (solidarity protests from the genocide diaspora community). These, too, were suppressed. Frustration with the government was at an all-time high, but the government held the patriotic trump card. The older generation was hesitant to upset the balance of power, for they feared a return to hostilities with neighboring Azerbaijan.
Map of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nogorno-Karabakh (RFE/RL)
Azerbaijan and Armenia had once resided together within the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). As the USSR began to fracture in the late 1980s/early-1990s, a dispute over the territory of Nogorno-Karabakh, assigned by the Soviets to Azerbaijan but with an Armenian ethnic majority, flared into full-scale war. With mountainous terrain and veteran Russian officers leading their well-equipped army, the Nogorno-Karabakh Defense Force/Armenian Army were able to defeat the Azeri military soundly by 1994. The war ended in a stalemate, with Armenia de facto in control of most of the Karabakh region, but the territory recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan.
Fast-forward to 2016, and tensions along the line of contact remained sky-high. In early April 2016, large skirmishing broke out between the Karabakh Defense Force and the Azeri military. In the fighting that followed, Azerbaijan was able to, for the first time, make strategic gains against the Armenians. Azerbaijan has outspent Armenia in military equipment for several years now, with Armenia spending $429 million on military in 2017 vs. Azerbaijan’s $1.55 billion. However, with the decline in oil prices, the amount of money Azerbaijan has to spend on military is dwindling. This means that their military advantage over Armenia is waning, giving an incentive to attack sooner than later. After the 2016 skirmishing, nationalistic rhetoric exploded in Azerbaijan. Some outlets even reported that, in the post-clash parades that were held in Baku, the city sold out of Azeri flags. The youth of Azerbaijan largely support retaking Karabakh from the Armenians.
Armenian/NKR soldiers in 2016
With the loss of territory, the Sargsyan government lost their largest claim to legitimacy. No longer could they claim that despite their lack of personal freedoms and democracy, they were holding off Azerbaijan. In July 2016, a group of men (mostly veterans of the Karabakh war) stormed a police station in Yerevan, taking the officers inside hostage. Thousands of protesters took to the streets to protest the government’s initial decision to storm the station, forcing the government to back down and negotiate. Eventually, the hostages were released, but the message had been sent. The hostage-takers had demanded the resignation of Sargsyan, which did not happen.
In April 2018 it was announced that Sargsyan would be running as the sole candidate for the Prime Minister position, a position he had recently, as President, infused with new, stronger powers. It became clear that he was lining himself up to be leader for life. In response, Armenians of all stripes took to the streets demanding his removal from the ballot and resignation. When it was announced that Sargsyan would not be running for Prime Minister and that a parliamentary vote would be held on May 1st to decide who could run, the protests continued. The chants changed from “Reject Serzh” to “Reject HHK”, the Armenian Republican Party. Protesters demand the election of opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan to the position of Prime Minister, something the ruling party is hesitant to do.
Armenian soldiers joining the protests in late April 2018
international issues
When the Soviet Union began to collapse, Armenian political leaders put their cards in with the rising Boris Yeltsin of Russia. Azerbaijan’s leaders tended to hold loyalty toward the Soviet Union itself. When the Union broke up, Russia began supplying Armenia with weapons at a discount rate. The relationship between Armenia and Russia advanced throughout the 1990s and 2000s, culminating in a basing agreement for Russian troops in Armenia and a defense treaty between the two states. On the Azeri side, close historic ties with Turkey have resulted in a similar defense treaty. Thus the war has a very high “spiral” potential, with both sides able to call in big allies to fight alongside them (at least in theory).
Azeri president Ilham Aliyev inspects an Israeli-produced Harop suicide drone system
As the crisis in Armenia continues, the chances of Azerbaijan taking the opportunity to grab territory rise. And both sides have pledged that another war would be far bloodier than anything that has come before. This time, both sides are equipped with ballistic missiles; Azerbaijan has “nests” of suicide drones ready to launch. And if other recent wars are any indicator, the desire of the international community to get involved, to the detriment of the locals, is great.
