On 25 November 2018, tensions between Ukraine and Russia in the Sea of Azov came to blows, with Russian and Ukrainian forces fighting against one another, overtly, for the first time. The incident was in no way an isolated one, and comes after months of buildup in the region. What follows is a very rough, basic outline of events.
The Black Sea, with occupied Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk in dark red (blue outlined oblasts indicate locations of martial law) (Courtesy liveuamap.com)
Back in 2014, Russian special forces invaded the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, sealing off access to the mainland before the Russian government voted to illegally annex the territory. Over the course of four years, Russia constructed a bridge across the Kerch Strait, the closest point between mainland Russia and Crimea, in order to provide road access to Russian forces on the now-isolated peninsula. That bridge opened in mid-May 2018, and effectively acts to choke maritime traffic into a small channel under the main span of the bridge, thus making it far easier to seal off ship traffic from the Black Sea and into the Sea of Azov, and vice-versa.
Maritime traffic seen stopped on either side of the Kerch Strait bridge (Courtesy marinetraffic.com)
In September, Russia toyed with the idea of blockading the Sea of Azov at the Kerch Strait Bridge, but in the face of a Ukrainian blockade-running operation, the Russian authorities backed away. Two old Ukrainian naval vessels were allowed to transit the Kerch Strait for the Sea of Azov unmolested. Fast-forward to November 25th, and a similar operation was under way. Three small Ukrainian naval vessels passed under the Kerch Strait Bridge, whereupon they were harassed by Russian Coast Guard vessels. In the ensuing chase, a Ukrainian tugboat was deliberately rammed by a larger Russian vessel, the Don, which then went on to collide with another Russian Coast Guard vessel on accident
Russian naval attack helicopters were immediately dispatched to the scene, along with a pair of Su-25 ground attack aircraft. Russia has since closed the Kerch Strait to all non-Russian naval traffic. Helicopters carrying Russian special forces soldiers have been spotted landing in parts of Kerch, tasked with arresting and seizing Ukrainian naval vessels that “violate” Russia’s “borders”. As of this writing, they have seized three small Ukrainian vessels, and their crews, and have towed them to Kerch.
A grounded cargo vessel acts as a blockade under the Kerch Strait bridge
Russia may be seeking to establish a land connection between their currently-held territories in Donetsk and Luhansk, and occupied Crimea. This entails capturing the major city of Mariupol in the process. This would not only allow over-land access to Crimea, but would also go further in establishing a Western-leaning Ukraine as a failed state, something not to be emulated by others (which is a primary Russian goal in their invasion of Ukraine). For more information on the causes that led up to the war in Ukraine, check out our previous article (which is somewhat dated by this point) on the topic.
Citing the possibility of an imminent Russian land invasion of Ukraine, on 26 November the Ukrainian Rada approved the implementation of martial law for a period of 30 days in certain provinces of Ukraine. The maritime incident has been condemned by most NATO countries, along with the NATO organization itself, and several states have pledged support to Ukraine. The situation remains fluid and has the potential to rapidly change for the worse. We will keep you updated as best as possible throughout the coming days.
