Part 1: Syria
On 20 December 2018, American president Donald Trump announced to the world that the American military would be withdrawing, in the immediate future, from both Syria and Afghanistan. The announcement has set off waves of panic and anxiety among American allies, along with bolstering the morale of America’s enemies. This article aims to discuss a few of the possible outcomes from these actions.
Eastern Syria
In Eastern Syria, at least 4,000 American soldiers are on the ground training and fighting alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of Kurdish fighters (coming primarily from the People’s Protection Units, YPG, and the Women’s Protection Units, the YPJ) along with Arab fighters as well. While the US does provide fighters, one of the operation’s main objectives is training and logistics to maintain cooperation and compatibility between the coalition groups. America’s deployments in Eastern Syria can be divided into roughly three separate areas/focuses: forces in the North, forces around Deir ez-Zor/Hajin, and forces near al-Tanf in the Iraqi border.
Northern Syria
In Northern Syria, primarily near the city of Manbij, the Turkish Army (TSK) and its Free Syrian Army allies (former Operation Olive Branch forces) are preparing to clear the YPG out of Manbij, and perhaps the rest of their territory north/east of the Euphrates river, specifically along Kurdish territory’s border with Turkey. Infographics of Turkey’s intended strategy show the carving out of a buffer zone along that northern border that may eventually lead to offensives further south.
At the moment, the only real obstacle between a Turkish assault on Northeastern Syria (Rojava) are the American troops embedded alongside the YPG/SDF. With Trump’s order to withdraw, coming days after Turkey vowed to “bury the YPG in ditches”, TSK/FSA forces are preparing to invade Rojava to put an end to the YPG and its parent organization the PYD once and for all. In doing so, the TSK will be distracting the YPG from their fight against Daesh in their final pocket in Syria, near the city of Hajin.
Hajin/Deir ez-Zor
Near Deir ez-Zor, in the city of Hajin, Daesh was on the verge of collapse due to the continuing onslaught of SDF troops and American/Coalition airstrikes. However, the remaining fighters are some the most die-hard, dedicated fighters. If the SDF is forced to switch their energies to fighting TSK/FSA advances near Manbij, Daesh will absolutely take advantage of the situation to regain territory. Recently, Daesh has been increasing their number of insurgent-style attacks in Iraq, and there is no reason to believe they won’t do the same in Syria. This means a resurgence of Daesh, this time with the phoenix effect of having risen from the ashes (moreso than Daesh itself already did).
Al-Tanf
The American/SDF base at al-Tanf is a key position for the American military in countering Iranian influence in Eastern Syria and in Iraq. While some might say that Iranian influence in the Middle East is not America’s business, it can also be argued that increased Iranian military hardware flows to Hezbollah and its allies in Syria would make greater the likelihood of a war between Israel and Iran, something nobody wants.
~
Between Assad’s intent to regain control over all of Syria once more, Turkey’s ambition to wipe out Kurdish dominance in the northeast, and the probable resurgence of Daesh, the US’s impromptu decision to pull out of Syria has left the defense community aghast. Since the announcement, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis and the US envoy for the International Coalition against ISIS Brett McGurk have resigned. Mattis will be replaced by an acting secretary Patrick Shanahan on Jan. 1.
All-told, an American withdrawal from Syria, at the current moment, will do far more damage and cause far more harm for locals than if American forces were to remain in-country.
The only difference is the personal guilt felt by Americans for the continuation of the war, which started without them, and will continue without them as well.
[Edited by Blake Vincent]
