On 13 June 2019, sometime around 6:00 AM local time, an explosion rocked the 600-foot tanker M/T Altair in the Gulf of Oman, sending debris and a massive fireball high into the sky. Fearing additional explosions and unsure if their vessel was under attack from missiles, the crew abandoned ship after sending out multiple distress calls, at least two of which were directed at the US Navy (who received the calls at 6:12 AM). Less than an hour later, another explosion tore into the 550-foot tanker M/T Kokuka Courageous. At 7:00 AM, the Kokuka Courageous sent out its own distress call. The incidents have ratcheted up tension in what was already an incredibly-tense situation, and the potential for escalation, either intentional or accidental, is dangerously high. This article will attempt to put together as much information as can be gleaned publicly as of this writing.
Tensions between Iran and the United States have been steadily increasing for years, but the main catalyst for recent events stems from President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on 8 May 2018. Iran responded by reiterating a long-held threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. Iran has attempted to do so in the past, knowing the impact a slowing of oil shipping would have on the global economy. Iran’s intention with such actions is to demonstrate to the US and to the world that, in the event of war, Tehran is capable of hurting the American voting public by drastically increasing the cost of oil.
On 12 May 2019, four oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates were attacked in what the UAE government labelled a “sabotage” attack. The vessels (One Emirati, two Saudi, and one Norwegian) were slightly damaged by the attack, but no fires broke out, nor did any oil spill. A subsequent investigation headed by the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Insurance Association (DNK) stated that the attack had been carried out with a high degree of technical expertise that, in their opinion, could only have come from a state actor. They labelled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the most likely culprit.
Fast-forward to 13 June, and the situation was quite different. M/T Altair suffered a significant fire from the explosion of what was likely a limpet mine placed on the side of the hull, and was abandoned by its crew. American Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Bainbridge, the nearest US Navy surface asset to the incident (40 nautical miles away), immediately began making top speed for the scene. Air assets (including P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and MQ-9 Reaper UAVs) were also routed to the area. However, a week prior to the explosions, an American MQ-9 UAV was shot down over Yemen by an SA-6 surface-to-air missile fired by Houthi forces. The American government has implicated Iran in supplying the Houthis with the missile. This, combined with an attempted shoot-down of an MQ-9 with an SA-7 missile on the date of the vessel explosions, likely means that USN air assets were kept at a safe distance (and thus the quality of video captured was quite low).
Despite the SAM systems employed, American aircraft were reportedly able to spot several Iranian fast attack craft/patrol vessels in the immediate vicinity of M/T Altair at 8:09 AM. An hour later, the aircraft witnessed the IRGC vessels pulling a raft from M/T Altair out of the water. At 9:26 the Iranian forces requested the nearby cargo vessel Hyundai Dubai (which rescued M/T Altair’s crew) relinquish the Altair’s personnel to the Iranian Navy, to which the Dubai complied. The crew of the M/T Kokuka Courageous, whom had abandoned ship upon discovering another limpet mine attached to their hull, had been rescued by the Dutch tugboat Coastal Ace. They were transferred sometime around 11:05 AM to the USS Bainbridge, which was raced to meet the Coastal Ace after learning an Iranian patrol boat was attempting to force the Coastal Ace to hand over the crew to Iranian forces. The master of M/T Kokuka Courageous specifically requested to be rescued by American forces.
Finally, at 4:10 PM, American forces witnessed an IRGC Gashti-class patrol boat pulling alongside the Kokuka Courageous, whereupon the crew of the patrol boat yanked the remaining limpet mine off the hull. This move, while not concrete evidence of Iranian involvement in the initial explosions, demonstrates at the very least a degree of comfort enjoyed by the IRGC patrol boat, as no sane person would ever approach a potential explosive situation without knowing said explosive was safe. Far more reasonable would have been to simply evacuate the area around the vessel and tow it back to port, where an EOD team could more easily/safely remove the mine.
The incident indicates a willingness on the part of the Iranian leadership to continue to confront America’s forces in the region. Any justification for an American low-level conflict with Iran (regional control, brownie points with hardliners at home, a desire to “stick it” to your enemy) can also be seen as justification for Iran’s continued aggression. The simple fact is, both countries so regularly engage in disinformation campaigns that it is quite difficult to know where the reality lies. Largely irrelevant but still worth note is the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq War, when American intelligence reports that indicated the reality of the situation on the ground in Iraq were largely ignored, and those that gave proper justifications for war were amplified. More dangerous, however, is the human shortcoming that allows us to fall into seeing patterns where patterns do not exist. For instance, in the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq War, American intelligence reports stated that Saddam Hussein’s forces had been “cleaning up” former chemical/biological weapons facilities. America read this as an attempt to hide an ongoing weapons program. In reality, the clean-up was exactly what it looked like; cleaning up old weapons facilities to get them in-line with what UN inspectors wanted.
Since 1979, America and Iran have seen one another as military opponents. While open-source information appears to largely corroborate portions of the American story, one must maintain a rigorous distrust of official government statements from both sides, and always be prepared to thoroughly check sources of information before spreading them.
